GEL outlook for 2026: rates, remittances, and the tourist season
The lari is a small currency off most traders' radar — but for any Georgian business or investor, it is the price that matters. Three factors drive it:
1. NBG refinancing rate
The "cost of holding" the lari. The higher the rate, the more attractive lari-denominated deposits become. The NBG cut cautiously in 2025; 2026 will depend on inflation.
2. Remittances
Money sent home from Russia, Italy, the US, and elsewhere. NBG's monthly remittance data often moves USD/GEL. Sanctions and geopolitical shifts can flip this channel quickly.
3. The tourist season
Summer is the lari's heartbeat. June–September FX inflows offset Georgia's structural trade deficit. A weak season means a weak lari.
What to watch
- Every NBG meeting (schedule in our economic calendar)
- Monthly remittance data
- Tourist arrival statistics
- The global DXY — a strong dollar pressures small currencies
A careful conclusion
A GEL outlook is not "BUY" or "SELL." It is a scenario map — and our economic calendar gives you the live data to fill it in.
